IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026
The IEA's annual check-up: higher prices, tighter controls, falling investment — and a lot of exposure concentrated in very few hands.
What happened
The IEA's 2026 Outlook found that copper, aluminum and tin prices rose about a third between January 2025 and April 2026, lithium more than doubled, cobalt jumped roughly 130% after DR Congo's export restrictions, and tungsten rose about sixfold.
It still projects deficits for copper and lithium through 2035 — the copper gap is now about 25%, down from about 30% in the previous edition — and says a cobalt gap has emerged. China's average share of refining for key minerals (excluding rare earths) reached 72% in 2025.
Our take
The most striking number may be on investment: critical-mineral spending fell about 9% in 2025, with lithium investment down around 40%, even as prices and security concerns rose. Markets are sending mixed signals, and capital is waiting for clearer price floors and policy.
The IEA also puts a price on the risk: full implementation of China's suspended rare-earth controls could put trillions of dollars a year of downstream production outside China in jeopardy. Meanwhile, it estimates that stockpiling 11 high-risk materials would cost less than $1 billion a year — cheap insurance by comparison.
Why it matters for AI infrastructure
Copper and lithium both feed the data-center power stack — grid connection and backup storage. Structural deficits in both suggest rising costs for anyone building large power-hungry campuses.
What we're watching
- China's suspended controls, set to lapse in November 2026
- Whether investment rebounds in 2026 data
- Progress on coordinated stockpiles among IEA members